President's Blog - 5 January 2010

Happy new year!
 
And congratulations to members of NFU Scotland  who received honours from Her Majesty The Queen.
 
Particular mention to Past President Sir Ian Grant CBE on his Knighthood, and Ian Duncan Millar MBE.
 
Feeding the stock on New Years morning is always a time for reflection. 2010 is the latest start ( 7.30am ) to a New Years morning since the McLaren family came to Dargill in 1939, as its the first one with no dairy cows to milk.
 
The weather has been pretty difficult for everyone over the Christmas and New Year period, with heavy snow falls and prolonged severe frosts the likes of which I can’t remember seeing since I was a child. For three days running, the highest the mercury rose was to -10 C in the "heat" of the day, and plunged to -17 C at night. The penetrative nature of those kinds of temperatures made for a difficult time watering stock. I spared a thought for people trying to keep water to dairy cattle and milking parlours frost free!
 
So what will 2010 have in store for Scottish agriculture? Impossible to predict, as the last few years have borne out, but a few things look fairly certain. Scotland will come to a position in the first half of the year on the broad principals of what we would like to see in the new CAP regime. Much has been written recently about what direction things will take, but Brian Pack's initial findings which are due for publication in mid January, will provide an excellent focus.

Exchange rates remain one of the key influences over the prospects for our industry. In 2009 we were protected from some of the worst commodity price drops by sterling’s weakness. SFP also received a welcome boost, and unlike our neighbours south of the border, Scottish Government saw fit to share the dividend of favourable exchange rates with the industry. The outcome of the UK general election and the speed at which this country exits recession will have a large part to play on the value of sterling in 2010.

The failed climate change talks in Copenhagen are unlikely to weaken the Scottish Government’s resolve to reduce GHG emissions, and agriculture must work along side the rest of society in meeting these targets, whilst remembering that food production is not a discretionary activity.

We must also remember that Scotland cannot save the planet on its own!

Climate change looks likely to bring opportunities for our industry at several levels. Renewable energy generation is the most obvious, but predicted weather changes may also be helpful for our industry.

I look forward with a sense of optimism to what lies in store for the coming year. Optimism is the default position of our industry.

I look forward to meeting as many members as possible in 2010, and thank you all for your support over the last three years.