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Article originally printed in The Scotsman 7 Jan 2026
I’m in no doubt that 2026 will be a pivotal year for Scottish agriculture – both in terms of challenges and opportunities. The coming year will not be defined by a single policy decision or market movement, but by the cumulative impact of policy choices and political change - and by the direction we now take.
Farmers and crofters are no strangers to uncertainty. Volatile markets, rising input costs, a changing climate and evolving policy frameworks have become familiar terrain. Yet 2026 presents both real challenges and genuine opportunities. How we respond will determine not just the resilience and viability of farming and crofting businesses, but the future shape of Scottish agriculture itself.
A Sector Under Pressure - But Full of Potential
The pressures facing Scottish agriculture as we go into 2026 are undeniable. Margins are tight regardless of output prices as input costs remain high and global instability continues to affect markets and supply chains. Weather extremes are no longer an exception but a regularly recurring feature, adding further risk to already complex business decisions.
At the same time, farmers and crofters are being asked to do more than ever before. Produce high-quality food, but at affordable prices. Reduce emissions. Sequester more carbon. Enhance nature. Protect water and soils. Support rural communities. All while remaining financially viable.
Yet within these challenges lies opportunity. Scottish agriculture has a strong reputation for quality, provenance and environmental stewardship. Our grass-based livestock systems, extensive land management and family-run businesses give us a powerful story to tell - domestically and internationally. The task for 2026 is to ensure policy and market frameworks allow that potential to be realised.
Policy Delivery Will Be Critical
One of the defining issues of 2026 will be the delivery of Scotland’s evolving agricultural support framework. For farmers and crofters, certainty matters. Businesses need clarity on what support will look like, how it will be accessed, and what will be expected in return.
Direct support remains fundamental. It provides the stability that underpins food production, environmental delivery and rural employment, particularly in our less favoured areas and crofting communities. Protecting this support - and the budget that sits behind it - must be a priority.
At the same time, future schemes must be practical, proportionate and flexible. Conditionality should reward outcomes, not create unnecessary bureaucracy. If policy becomes overly complex or detached from the realities of farming and crofting, confidence will be lost - and with it, participation.
2026 must be the year where policy moves decisively from consultation to confident, workable delivery.
But we also must engage with a new Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government. The outcome of the elections in May will be critical. We need both a parliament and a government that fully commits to Scottish farmers and crofters, and all that they underpin. We cannot be disregarded or, worse still, played as a political football.
Food Production Must Remain Central
As global events continue to highlight the fragility of food supply chains, the importance of domestic food production cannot be overstated. Scotland has the land, climate and skills to play a vital role in feeding its population and contributing to wider food security.
Any support framework that fails to recognise food production as a core public good risks undermining the very foundation of the sector. Environmental ambitions and productive farming are not mutually exclusive - but they must be balanced.
In 2026, we must prioritise policies that support sustainable production, reward efficiency and resilience, and ensure that farmers are not penalised simply for producing food.
Climate and Nature: From Challenge to Opportunity
Climate change and biodiversity loss remain among the biggest long-term challenges facing agriculture – and have galvanised political thinking. But they also represent an opportunity for farmers and crofters to be recognised and rewarded for the role they play in managing Scotland’s land sustainably, while also underpinning rural communities.
Scottish farmers and crofters are already delivering significant environmental benefits, often without formal recognition. In 2026, support mechanisms must better reflect this contribution, with support increasingly targeted at actions grounded in practical farm enterprise and land management.
Investment in advice, innovation and skills will be essential. Farmers and crofters need access to tools and knowledge that help them reduce emissions, improve efficiency and enhance biodiversity while contributing to and driving profitable businesses.
People, Skills and the Future Workforce
No discussion about the future of Scottish agriculture can ignore the importance of people. An ageing workforce, challenges around succession, and barriers for new entrants continue to threaten the long-term health of the sector.
In 2026, we must prioritise measures that support generational renewal, skills development and business confidence. That means making farming and crofting an attractive and viable career, ensuring access to land and capital, and recognising the contribution of family farms and crofts to rural Scotland.
What Must Be Prioritised
If we are to achieve our goals for Scottish agriculture in 2026 and beyond, several priorities are clear to me:
- Protecting and increasing the agricultural budget and ensuring direct support remains a cornerstone of the system
- Delivering policy clarity and certainty, with measures that work on the ground
- Keeping food production at the heart of agricultural policy
- Rewarding environmental delivery through proportionate, targeted support
- Investing in people, skills and the next generation
A Year That Will Shape the Future
As I’ve said, 2026 has the potential to be a defining year for Scottish agriculture. With the right priorities and a genuine partnership between government and industry, it can mark a shift towards a more confident, resilient and sustainable sector.
As part of the NFU Scotland team, I will continue to make the case for policies that recognise the realities of farming and crofting, value food production, and support those who work the land. The choices made now will shape Scottish agriculture for years to come - and we must get them right.