We are still in the midst of a busy season, trying to get through both lambing and calving. Although the weather has been mostly on our side, these busy times still come with their challenges. Ongoing global instability, creating another round of spiralling fuel and fertiliser prices, has had an immediate, direct impact on livestock businesses at a time of year when both fuel and fertiliser are crucial inputs. 

This time last year, beef prices peaked, with deadweight R4L steer prices hitting over £7.20/kg. This represented an unprecedented surge due to tightened supply, with finished prices surging 28% from the end of 2024, sometimes exceeding 705p/kg by early April. By comparison, prices surged 25% within just five weeks in early 2025, leaving them more than double their pre-COVID level. 

A year on, store cattle are still achieving high prices despite some easing at the start of the year, but significant increases in production costs are eroding much of any potential additional margin. 

Coming into 2026, finished prices were strong, however recently producers have seen a significant decline, with some reports as low as 610p/kg for R4L steers, leaving many finishers in an uncertain time. With cattle numbers still in decline and supply continuing to tighten, it hasn’t prevented the finished prices dropping. The impact of the significant price increases in April 2025 is now being felt, particularly from a finisher's perspective. We cannot ignore the fact that consumer demand for beef is fragile, with an increase in demand for lower value cuts, for example mince, or moving to other proteins to make their money stretch. This can be reflected in the favourable prices producers are receiving for culled cows. The choices consumers are having to make are a direct result of the cost-of-living crisis that is upon us. 

Beef prices are cyclical by nature, often influenced by a variety of factors including global supply chains, consumer demand, feed prices, weather conditions and so on. Volatility in commodity prices, whether they’re up or down, can have a ripple effect that destabilises farm businesses. This adds to a series of pressures that have been building over the last few years: rising input costs, labour shortages, and market uncertainty brought on by global economic instability, and farmers need the prices to remain at a profitable level. 

Furthermore, the impact of previous government trade deals continues to leave us open to the risk of increased volumes of cheaper imports, something we continue to monitor through our ShelfWatch initiative. Our previous audits have picked up on imported beef from the southern hemisphere for the first time, and we raised the reports with retailers to underline the dangerous precedent this sets and the damaging impact it has on producer confidence. 

As mentioned, cheaper imports are on the increase, with QMS data showing non-EU beef imports have risen sharply to around 30% of UK imports, but have largely replaced EU supply rather than increasing total volumes. In addition, growing non-EU volumes have coincided with a notable drop in their average price, making them significantly cheaper than EU beef since spring 2025. 

Looking ahead, the audits will continue to keep a very close eye on sourcing and labelling commitments as we move into the BBQ season. This will provide us with a picture of which retailers are remaining steadfast to commitments to Scottish and British sourcing during what is effectively a perfect storm for the sector.   

We all acknowledge that we have been here before. Severe price fluctuations make it hard to run a business, and we need transparency, consistency and a fair return on the product to maintain confidence and production.

Farmers work hard to bring quality beef to market, and while we can accept ebbs and flows are part of the trade, when those prices start to fall with no guarantee of stopping, the small increase in confidence built from last year’s trade will soon disappear. 

The current climate in the beef sector serves as a reminder of the vulnerabilities in the agricultural system and underscores the importance of policies that help to shield domestic producers from global price fluctuations while ensuring the continued sustainability of the beef industry.