Fertiliser’s expensive, its future availability is uncertain, and prices are rapidly shifting. With some of you having to place orders without even knowing the cost. This isn’t just a Scotland problem. Farmers around the world, from Australia to Zimbabwe, are having to deal with this. The way the Middle East conflict is going, it looks like food could be scarce next year.
Food inflation is going to happen. But when? Without higher returns, farmers could find it difficult to buy much more expensive inputs. Especially with interest rates going up. There’s a massive disconnect between the current reality of high supplies of grain, potatoes, milk, and other commodities, and probable future scarcity. Plenty of produce is keeping prices down.
From a combinable crops point of view, there is far too much barley sitting in farmers’, merchants’, and maltsters’ sheds. The supply chain needs to shift grain, and farm businesses should prepare for another winter of grain storage. Otherwise, we could potentially see low post-harvest grain prices. Depending, of course, on sowing and agronomic decisions in other parts of the world.
If you have SQC farm assurance, you should seriously consider ticking the ‘long-term storage’ box. The 2025 derogations can’t be counted on this year. It is also worth checking . It provides information to help you minimise loss of premiums, through claims and rejections. It looks at how to identify and manage hazards /risks, and details the main grain storage targets (moisture, temperature and cooling).
But more storage is needed across the supply chain. Not just on farms. We want to see investments at ports, and by grain co-ops and other merchants. This will support supplying new export markets. We also want to see more supply chain dialogue. Both are needed to help manage this unusual period, with definite high supply and low prices today, and probable low supply and high prices tomorrow (unfortunately not literally tomorrow!)
A new supply chain capital grant scheme, the technically should support applications. But with limited funds, short deadlines, and a focus on food and drink manufacture, it might not provide the strategic supply chain investments needed to significantly benefit arable farmers in Scotland. We will be engaging with government to shape a future capital grant scheme that takes a strategic supply chain approach and doesn’t just fund big projects in isolation.
In an uncertain world, the ability to effectively store grain for longer can be a good way of managing market volatility, giving growers and the rest of the supply chain a better chance of better prices.
For NFUS members, the advice is clear: preparing for longer-term grain storage is no longer be optional. Effective storage will provide a practical way to manage market volatility, protect premiums, and give Scottish growers a stronger chance of securing better returns - even in an unpredictable global market. NFUS will continue to provide guidance, advocate for strategic investment, and ensure members have the tools to protect their businesses in these challenging conditions.