In recent media and press activity, we have been clear: Scotland’s pig sector is at a tipping point. For some businesses, the challenge remains insurmountable, and we are continuing to lose independent pig producers.
This growing imbalance across the supply chain has further weakened a sector already operating dangerously close to critical mass. Any further contraction risks undermining the long-term viability of Scottish pork.
The uncomfortable reality is that we have been here before. The question now is what lessons have been learned - and how the sector has found itself back in such a vulnerable position.
A Familiar Warning Sign: Falling Farmer Share
One of the clearest indicators of supply-chain imbalance is the farmer share of the retail price.
After recovering in the wake of the last crisis, figures from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) show that farmer share is falling again. Concerningly, it has slipped back towards levels around 28% of the retail price, levels last seen at the start of 2022, when the sector moved into full crisis.
The 2022 crisis was primarily triggered by plant shutdowns and the resulting loss of access to the Chinese export market. However, there were also smaller warning signs which, taken together, pointed to systemic imbalance and a lack of resilience. When that delicate balance was disrupted, the sector was quickly pushed into crisis. By the time the industry responded, the damage had already been done, resulting in financial losses, herd reductions and a loss of confidence that is still being rebuilt today.
We are now seeing early indicators of a similar pattern:
- Farmer share of the retail price is declining towards levels seen ahead of the last crisis.
- Retail value is falling.
- Imports are increasing in key categories, particularly in food service.
- There is a growing disconnect between the cost of production and market return.
We cannot afford to ignore these signals.
Where Are We Today?
Our latest ShelfWatch figures show that retail pork prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. Across domestic pork, prices have dropped by more than £3/kg since January.
Farmers are not only receiving a smaller share of the retail price; they are receiving a smaller share of a shrinking total.
In simple terms, this means a smaller slice of a smaller pie. This is happening against a backdrop of soaring input costs linked to the Iran conflict, alongside deductions for out-of-spec pigs caused by bottlenecks at processing plants.
The broader retail picture reinforces this sense of imbalance, with mixed signals on domestic sourcing. We welcome Aldi’s commitment to increasing Scottish pork lines in Scottish stores and Tesco’s recent introduction of Scottish pork in Scottish stores. However, elsewhere the changes are small, and we need to see more from other retailers to support domestic pork.
Our audit shows shifting sourcing patterns, particularly in processed categories:
- Imported product now accounts for 38% of bacon and gammon, up significantly year on year.
- Imports also make up around a third of cooked ham, with some retailers increasing their reliance on imported supply.
Taken together, falling prices, shifting sourcing and declining farmer share point to a deeper structural issue: value is not flowing back to producers in a way that reflects the realities of production.
Activity and Next Steps
We met with the Scottish Government to highlight the seriousness of the situation and to ask for financial aid for the sector before it is too late. Our request was met with understanding from Cabinet Secretary Gillian Martin, who has pledged to explore what options may be available to deliver much-needed support for affected producers.
The Scottish Government has committed to continuing to work with industry to support longer-term goals, help stabilise the sector and give producers greater confidence in their prospects. We underline the seriousness of the situation and the need for government support as soon as possible.
As a Union, we are engaging with processors and retailers to discuss how they can support the sector in the short, medium and long term. Following letters underling the realities facing Scottish pig producers we met with most at last week’s Highland Show to discuss high-level concerns and establish follow-up meetings. These meetings were encouraging, with a recognition that these are challenging conditions for all involved and it is important that we work together to strengthen the sector. collaborate
The whole supply chain and Scottish Government must now join forces to identify how, as an industry, we can support producers through this immediate crisis and provide long term stability and confidence for the future.
Jamie Wyllie, Pig Committee Chairman at NFUS said: “The warning lights are flashing again. We've seen these signals before, and we know where they lead if they are ignored. Every producer who leaves the industry takes skills, investment and future capacity with them. The question is not whether the sector is under pressure – it clearly is, the question is will we have a pig sector left at all in Scotland if we don’t act now.”
With producers leaving the sector and sow numbers being reduced, we must ask whether we have already crossed the tipping point. If we are to have any hope of reversing this decline, we need to move beyond recognising the problem and focus urgently on addressing it.