At a recent Monitor Farm meeting at Castleton in East Lothian, NFU Scotland's I joined local farmers to discuss the changing policy landscape facing Scottish agriculture.
From agricultural support reform to UK trade policy, environmental regulation and volatile global markets, the session highlighted just how much change the industry is navigating, and why building resilient farming businesses has never been more important.
Keeping agricultural support focused on active farming
While agricultural policy can often feel complex, the principles underpinning NFU Scotland's approach remain clear.
We continue to argue that future support must reward active farmers undertaking agricultural activity. Support should recognise businesses delivering environmental outcomes through productive farming, reward existing good practice, and retain area-based payments to provide stability for farm businesses.
These principles remain central as Scotland develops its future agricultural support framework.
What could support look like by 2030?
The Scottish Government's future support framework is expected to develop into four tiers.
Tier 1 will provide a foundation of direct income support, continuing to offer essential stability for many businesses.
Tier 2 will reward farmers who adopt management practices that go beyond the baseline, with limited bureaucracy requirements.
Tier 3 is expected to focus on more targeted environmental and land management measures requiring greater planning and management.
Tier 4 will provide the training, advice and knowledge exchange needed to help businesses adapt to the requirements of the above Tiers, and make the most of the opportunities available.
The transition will be gradual. Between 2027 and 2029, farmers can expect further changes to Tier 1 requirements, defining an "active farmer", consideration of payment regions, and development of enhanced Tier 2 measures.
EFA requirements set to increase
One of the most immediate changes for Scottish arable businesses is the planned increase in Ecological Focus Area (EFA) requirements from the equivalent of 5% to 7% of weighted land area from January 2027.
NFU Scotland has opposed the increase, arguing that higher requirements risk discouraging participation while reducing productive output at a time when farm margins are already under significant pressure.
We continue to make the case that currently ineligible areas delivering environmental value should count towards EFA calculations, ensuring environmental measures remain practical, proportionate and economically sustainable.
UK policy continues to influence Scottish farming
Alongside Scottish agricultural policy reform, UK-wide developments continue to affect farm businesses.
1. Fertiliser markets remain uncertain
The fertiliser market continues to cause concern. Volatility, resulting from the continued uncertainty of the Iran conflict, is delaying purchase decisions. The proposed introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from January 2027 could further increase imported fertiliser costs, potentially creating additional supply pressures as businesses look to secure product before the changes take effect.
2. Fairer supply chains remain a priority
NFU Scotland continues to press the UK Government to resume work on Fair Dealing legislation for combinable crops.
Growers continue to raise concerns about the fairness and transparency of some contracts, particularly within the malting barley sector. Improving confidence across the supply chain is essential if businesses are to invest for the future.
3. Closer links with Europe bring opportunities and trade-offs
The UK Government's ambition to strengthen trading relations with the European Union could bring significant benefits for Scottish agriculture.
Reducing import and export barriers would support sectors including dairy, while lifting restrictions on seed potato exports would provide new opportunities. Closer regulatory alignment could also help facilitate the development and adoption of gene editing and New Genomic Techniques (NGTs), improving crop productivity, resilience and sustainability over time.
However, negotiations also present challenges. Regulatory alignment may lead to further restrictions on some crop protection products, including uncertainty around active ingredients such as flufenacet and the future use of glyphosate.
While discussions continue, there are encouraging signs that both the UK and EU are seeking a more pragmatic and competitive regulatory approach.
4. Farming in an increasingly uncertain world
Perhaps the strongest message from the meeting was the sheer level of uncertainty facing farm businesses.
Global political events continue to influence fertiliser availability, fuel prices and grain markets almost overnight. At the same time, increasingly unpredictable weather patterns are affecting production both in Scotland and around the world.
Against this backdrop, businesses are making long-term decisions while operating in a rapidly changing environment.
Looking beyond the immediate challenges
While uncertainty is unlikely to disappear, several longer-term trends are becoming clearer.
Public finances remain under pressure, reinforcing the need to demonstrate the value farming delivers, not only through food production, but also for rural communities, biodiversity and climate resilience.
At the same time, greater market volatility looks set to become the norm as global supply chains respond to climate change, geopolitical tensions and changing consumer demand.
Building resilient businesses
The discussion at Castleton concluded with a clear message. Resilience will be the defining characteristic of successful farm businesses in the years ahead.
Resilience means businesses that can withstand policy change, market shocks and extreme weather, while remaining flexible enough to seize new opportunities. It requires investment in people, technology, and infrastructure. And supply chains that deliver fair returns, and policies that recognise the strategic importance of domestic food production.
Scottish agriculture has always adapted to change. While the years ahead will undoubtedly bring challenges, they also offer opportunities for businesses prepared to innovate, plan ahead and continue producing high-quality food while caring for Scotland's environment.
The future may be uncertain, but it is still very much worth farming for.