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By Duncan Macalister
Scotland’s beef producers are facing falling prices, which is knocking confidence in the sector. At a time of volatile and rising input costs, fluctuations in beef prices pose a significant risk, particularly for store finishers.
Profitability is something we speak about often. And for the first time in decades, Scottish beef producers thought we were beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. Strong cattle prices were finally delivering a fairer return for producers and confidence was slowly returning. However, after peaking this time last year, we are now seeing store and finished cattle prices ease back. While prices remain historically strong compared to the five-year average, it is the volatility that concerns producers most. While store producers have benefitted from strong demand, finishers are unable to recover purchase costs in the finished trade as deadweight prices soften.
Short-lived price spikes followed by sharp corrections do little to build confidence for long-term investment. Stability and transparency are what the sector needs.
That matters because global demand for beef remains strong and is expected to grow further. Scotland is well placed to meet that demand with premium, sustainable, high-quality beef production. For a time, improving returns created a genuine opportunity for producers to rebuild herd numbers and invest in the future of the sector.
But confidence remains fragile.
Scotland still faces declining suckler cow numbers and reduced national herd capacity. If confidence weakens again now, we risk accelerating herd contraction just as domestic and UK cattle supplies are already historically tight.
So why are prices easing if supply remains relatively tight?
Part of the answer may lie with consumer behaviour. QMS data continues to show constrained supply compared to previous years, but when prices rise sharply, consumers inevitably adjust purchasing habits and look for cheaper alternatives. That appears to be feeding back through the supply chain.
At the same time, imports are increasing - despite reports show the strong performance of red meat exports in 2025.
Brexit resulted in trade agreements such as Australia and New Zealand that have allowed UK livestock producers to be undercut. We are now seeing growing volumes of imported beef entering the UK market, with forecasts suggesting increasing imports in 2026.
This is a significant market shift, and Scottish producers are increasingly concerned about the impact it could have on domestic production and long-term confidence in the sector.
Processors and retailers understandably want security of supply at a time when global availability is tight. But producers also need security of price, particularly as input costs continue to rise again.
That is why we are continuing to engage directly with retailers regarding increasing imports and the impact they have on Scottish producers. We will also undertake ShelfWatch audits across the summer to provide a clearer picture of imported products appearing on supermarket shelves.
Alongside this, our Livestock Committee continues to engage closely with processors and QMS. Our next committee meeting includes a processing site visit and discussions around QMS’ five-year strategy and ongoing work to expand export opportunities for Scottish red meat.
Earlier this month, Hugh Fraser reflected on the past year in the beef sector here. To build on that, I thought I’d expand on some of the external factors likely to shape the beef market in the near future.
Since the start of last year, we have been engaging with Defra and a range of stakeholders on the EU/UK SPS agreement. We welcome the agreement as a means of reducing costs, simplifying trade, and growing markets for Scottish produce - and as part of this agreement, EU bans on import, for example Brazil, would extend to the UK.
It could be a positive development for red meat, reducing many of the post-Brexit trade barriers that currently make exporting to the EU more expensive and time-consuming. By aligning food safety and animal health rules more closely with the EU, the deal could reduce paperwork, cut veterinary certification costs, and limit delays. It would remove the requirement for Export Health Certificates, often costing up to £200 per consignment, a constraint introduced by Brexit that has created significant challenges. This would help Scottish beef exporters move fresh products more quickly into European markets, improving shelf life and competitiveness.
The agreement could also help Scottish beef producers regain EU customers lost since Brexit, particularly smaller exporters who have struggled with the added bureaucracy. As Scotland’s beef industry relies heavily on premium exports and already operates to high standards closely aligned with those in the EU, the sector is well placed to benefit from smoother trade. Overall, the deal could support profitability, investment, and long-term stability across Scotland’s beef supply chain.
Recent volatility in beef prices once again underlines the need for direct support to underpin Scottish agriculture. The importance of coupled support is also clear, with SSBSS payments providing a much-needed cash injection this year at a time when input costs were again rising sharply. We continue to lobby for a firm commitment to multi-annual funding to secure long-term financial stability for farmers and crofters.
On the fuel and fertiliser crisis, we met with the Secretary of State for Defra, Emma Reynolds MP, to discuss the impact of ongoing geopolitical pressures on agriculture and the need for both short-term support and long-term resilience. We highlighted the pressures facing farmers, particularly around fuel and fertiliser costs and wider supply chain resilience.
In conclusion, while recent volatility in cattle prices has reduced some of the profitability and optimism that had begun to return to Scotland’s suckler sector, the longer-term outlook for Scottish beef remains positive. Global demand for high-quality beef continues to grow, creating significant opportunities for Scotland’s premium red meat industry. Measures such as the proposed EU/UK SPS agreement could help unlock these opportunities by reducing trade barriers, lowering export costs, and improving access to European markets for Scottish producers and exporters.
However, long-term growth and confidence in the sector will depend on stability. Farmers need assurance that returns will remain sustainable enough to support reinvestment and rebuilding of the national herd, without exposure to ongoing price volatility. At the same time, rising imports, increasing input costs, and continued market uncertainty are placing pressure on producers. This reinforces the importance of direct agricultural support, long-term funding commitments, and strong engagement with supply chains and government to ensure Scotland’s livestock sector remains profitable, resilient, and capable of meeting future demand.