They say a week is a long time in politics. At present, the political picture seems to be shifting by the hour.
Yesterday (Monday 12 July), the Conservative leadership contest took a further dramatic twist, with Andrea Leadsom announcing that she will withdraw from the contest – effectively leaving Theresa May as the last woman standing in the race for Number 10. Outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron then delivered a short statement on the steps of Downing Street, confirming that this morning’s Cabinet meeting will be his last, and he will give his resignation to the Queen immediately following Prime Minister’s Questions tomorrow afternoon.
In short, all of this means that Mrs May will be installed as our new Prime Minister by Wednesday evening.
These fast developments (a contrast, one muses, to what is happening within Westminster’s opposition party) naturally add a new host of questions to throw into the ongoing uncertainty following the European referendum result in June.
When we woke up on Monday morning, it was thought that the new Prime Minister would not be confirmed until 9 September, following which the formal EU exit negotiations would begin with the triggering of Article 50 in the autumn. The question now is whether Mrs May will be put under pressure to trigger this sooner rather than later as she takes up office ahead of the parliamentary recess in August.
Whilst we don’t know the ‘how’s and when’s’, what Mrs May has made certain is that Brexit means Brexit – stating yesterday: “We’re going to make a success of it. There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to re-join it by the back door, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and as prime minister I will make sure that we leave the European Union.”
As she takes the helm in a delicate post-referendum UK, not only will the new prime minister be tasked with the seemingly unedifying task of healing the rifts within her own party caused by the European question; she will also be required to respond to some calls from the opposition benches for a snap General Election, from those who are questioning her mandate after the leadership contest was cut short.
For NFU Scotland’s part, the recent developments make the role of the Union even clearer.
The 10 commitments that the Union published on Friday (view them online here) set down a marker for the UK Government, Scottish Government and all in the supply chain to consider as we begin to cross this unchartered territory.
Having been in constant communication with our Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Rural Economy and Connectivity, the Union has been left in no doubt that the top of Scottish Government is unequivocal that the interests of agriculture and the rural economy will be at the forefront in the negotiations. The vital task now is to communicate this to our new prime minister immediately as she takes up her premiership.
NFU Scotland President Allan Bowie will also champion this position when he visits Brussels to attend COPA and a meeting of all the UK farming unions on Friday, where the UK’s situation is on the top of the agenda.
Meanwhile, the process of assembling a new government will begin. Mrs May will work on a new Queen’s Speech, setting out a range of future Bills to take forward a post-referendum Britain. The new prime minister will also appoint a fresh Cabinet. All of this activity will present important opportunities for NFU Scotland to influence the process from the outset of this new government.
A week may be a long time in politics, but you can be in no doubt that your Union is working to remain ahead of all that is emerging, and continues to firmly push for the interests of our members to ensure a thriving agricultural industry for the future.