Originally published in The Scotsman
The 2026 Scottish Parliament election has produced a fragmented and politically complex result, but one reality remains unmistakably clear in that Scotland’s economic resilience, food security, climate ambitions and rural prosperity will depend heavily on the success of Scottish agriculture.
For farmers and crofters across the country, this election campaign marked a significant shift in political tone. Agriculture was no longer treated as a peripheral rural issue. Instead, every major political party acknowledged, in different ways, that food production, land management, climate delivery and rural communities are strategically important to Scotland’s future.
Yet while there is broad political recognition of agriculture’s importance, there remains far less agreement on how policy should enable the sector to deliver over the next parliamentary term.
The likely outcome is an SNP-led government that will need support from other parties, relying on parliamentary cooperation to pass budgets and legislation. That creates both uncertainty and opportunity for Scottish agriculture.
For NFU Scotland, the election result does not signal the end of a political campaign. It marks the beginning of an intensive period of engagement with Ministers, MSPs and policymakers to ensure that Scotland’s farmers and crofters remain at the centre of decision-making.
The task now is clear. We must turn manifesto promises into practical policy that supports active, profitable, and sustainable farming and crofting.
A Parliament defined by negotiation
The new Scottish Parliament reflects a wider political realignment taking place across Scotland and the UK.
The SNP remains the largest governing force, but without overall control. Labour stumbled from the expectations following the General Election in July 2024, but share ‘second place’ with Reform UK who have won Holyrood seats for the first time. The Conservatives have lost seats and no longer hold their previous position of opposition. The Liberal Democrats have strengthened their numbers, particularly in rural areas. And the Greens are likely to hold considerable leverage on climate and land-use policy.
For all farming and crofting interests, this means policymaking is likely to become more negotiated, less predictable, and potentially slower – and it’s often glacial at best. However, fragmentation also creates opportunities. In a Parliament where no party dominates every debate, NFU Scotland has greater scope to shape legislation, build cross-party alliances and influence parliamentary scrutiny.
Farming and crofting rarely fit neatly within traditional political divides. Agricultural and rural policy intersects with climate targets, biodiversity goals, economic growth, trade, land reform, transport, energy and rural services. That means constructive engagement across all parties will be essential.
NFU Scotland will continue working professionally with every party represented at Holyrood. We will support policies that strengthen Scottish agriculture and challenge proposals that risk undermining active, productive farming and crofting.
Stability must be delivered
The SNP’s manifesto offered broad continuity in agricultural policy. Commitments to food security, climate adaptation, direct support, and rural resilience provide some welcome stability after years of uncertainty.
But farmers and crofters are now looking for delivery rather than further consultation.
The previous parliamentary term was dominated by lengthy debate around agricultural reform, dominated by primary legislation and the future support framework. While progress has been made, many businesses still lack clarity over how future schemes will operate in practice.
For NFU Scotland, several principles remain fundamental. Future support systems must be practical, proportionate, and properly funded. Active farming and crofting must remain central to policy. Climate and biodiversity measures must complement food production rather than displace it. Regulation must remain workable. Above all, agricultural businesses require long-term certainty to invest for the future.
That financial certainty is increasingly important as pressures on public spending intensify. Agriculture cannot become a residual budget line vulnerable to annual political negotiations.
Food production and climate policy
The growing influence of the Scottish Greens is likely to shape debates around emissions reductions, land reform, peatland restoration, and environmental conditionality. There are many areas where agriculture and environmental priorities align. Scotland’s farmers and crofters already deliver substantial biodiversity and climate outcomes while maintaining world-leading standards of food production and animal welfare.
But concerns remain where some policy debates appear to frame food production and environmental delivery as competing objectives. That is a false choice.
Scotland requires both climate progress and domestic food production. Productive agriculture must be recognised as part of the climate solution, not treated as the problem. Farmers are already investing in emissions reductions, carbon efficiency, renewable energy integration, and nature enhancement. However, the costs of transition and delivery must remain financially realistic if businesses are to remain viable and become profitable.
Policy must support balanced land use - protecting productive agricultural land while enabling environmental progress and rural economic sustainability together.
Food security is a strategic issue
The geopolitical instability and supply chain disruption of recent years, and weeks, have fundamentally changed the conversation around food security. Domestic food production can no longer be treated as an abstract or secondary concern. Scotland must avoid policies that reduce productive capacity while increasing dependence on imported food produced to lower environmental or welfare standards.
Strengthening food security means recognising farming and crofting as strategic national infrastructure. It also means greater political focus on public procurement of Scottish produce, protecting prime agricultural land, and supporting investment across the supply chain. Food production, climate ambition, nature enhancement, and economic resilience are not mutually exclusive goals. In fact, they increasingly depend upon one another.
Rural communities need farming and crofting – and vice versa
One of the clearest messages from the election is that rural concerns cannot be separated from agricultural policy. Housing shortages, transport connectivity, digital infrastructure, veterinary capacity, labour availability, and healthcare access all directly affect the viability of farming and crofting businesses and the communities they support.
An ageing farming population, rising capital costs and barriers for new entrants represent major structural challenges for the sector. Labour shortages remain acute, particularly in horticulture and seasonal production. Skills development, apprenticeships, and practical training pathways will therefore remain critical priorities over the coming parliamentary term.
The next five years will be defining
The next Scottish Parliament will shape the future of agriculture, and rural Scotland, for a generation. Its decisions will influence the viability of family farms and crofts, Scotland’s food security, rural employment, biodiversity outcomes, climate delivery and investment confidence across the rural economy.
There is genuine opportunity ahead. But opportunity alone is not enough.
The sector requires political recognition that food production remains strategically important. It requires practical regulation, stable long-term investment and policy frameworks that allow businesses to remain profitable while delivering environmental progress.
NFU Scotland is ready to work constructively with the new Scottish Government and all parties across the Scottish Parliament to achieve those outcomes. The message from Scottish agriculture remains consistent and straightforward. With the right backing, farming and crofting can deliver economic growth, climate progress, food security and thriving rural communities together.
That is the challenge, and the opportunity, facing both Scotland’s new Government and Parliament.