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Scotland’s pig sector is facing an exceptionally difficult period, with mounting pressures combining to create what many in the industry describe as a critical situation. Falling prices and shrinking herds are placing severe strain on producers. While the challenges are significant, they are not insurmountable. Understanding what has happened and what support is needed next is key to securing the future of this vital sector.
A perfect storm of market pressures
The current crisis has not been caused by a single factor, but by a series of events that have compounded over time.
A significant and sustained drop in pig prices began with a fall in EU market prices. This was then exacerbated in the UK by processing plant breakdowns and African swine fever (ASF) in Spain, which further weakened EU prices. Seasonal closures over the festive period added additional pressure, leaving producers with too many pigs and animals that were heavier than the market demands. The result has been a clear imbalance, with supply significantly exceeding demand.
Scotland hit harder than the UK average
The situation is particularly acute in Scotland. Pig prices there are currently sitting well below the UK standard pig price (SPP), by as much as 30p/kg. However, this is not solely a Scottish issue, with a growing number of independent producers south of the border seeing contracts cancelled and prices remaining well below the cost of production.
In Scotland, the impact is already visible in herd numbers. It is estimated that around 10% of the Scottish sow herd has been lost since the start of the year, as farmers have been forced to cull breeding sows to manage backed-up pigs and weak demand.
This is particularly concerning given that Scotland’s pig sector is already close to “critical mass”, the point below which the industry struggles to sustain itself.
Financial losses mounting
The economics for producers are increasingly unsustainable. The latest cost of production figures put production at 188p/kg, while the current SPP is 180p/kg and Scottish producers are receiving around 152p/kg. This gap is driving severe losses.
Estimates suggest producers are losing between £700 and £1,000 per sow place this year. For a typical 500-sow unit, that equates to losses of up to £500,000, a level that is not viable for any farming business.
Why the sector matters
Despite these challenges, the pig sector remains critically important.
Pork is:
- A high-quality, affordable source of protein
- Efficient to produce, with a relatively low carbon footprint
- A key contributor to Scotland’s food security
It also plays an important role in the wider agricultural economy, particularly in supporting cereal producers through feed demand. The industry also contributes to a wide range of roles and economic activity across the supply chain.
What NFUS is doing
Initiatives such as ShelfWatch have helped monitor retail trends and support Scottish producers. Industry feedback has identified ShelfWatch as an instrumental tool in highlighting the importance and value of Scottish produce, as well as its role in supporting a secure, resilient supply chain worth investing in. Work is now underway to engage more closely with processors across all commodities to maximise the value of ShelfWatch data and insights going forward.
Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) have also been working to strengthen pork branding, aligning it more closely with the successful branding used for beef and lamb. This includes promoting pork as a high-protein, nutrient-dense food, in line with growing consumer trends. The first wave of newly branded products has begun rolling out this month, with more lines switching over in the coming months.[GU1.1][GU2.1]
Work is also underway to improve fairness in the supply chain, including engagement with the Agricultural Supply Chain Adjudicator (ASCA). While current practices may technically comply with regulations, there is recognition that better behaviour from processors is needed.
Current priorities
Industry leaders are actively developing a coordinated response.
Recent discussions within the sector have focused on:
- Developing clear messages for government on the urgency of the crisis
- Highlighting the pig sector’s economic and strategic importance
- Exploring potential funding mechanisms and policy support
Engagement with the new government is planned, including inviting the new cabinet secretary to meet with NFUS pig producers to hear their concerns directly and discuss possible support measures. This includes consideration of lessons from the COVID-era hardship fund, which provided emergency relief during previous market disruption.
A sector at risk, but worth saving
Scotland’s pig sector is at a crossroads. The pressures it faces are severe, but the case for support remains strong economically, environmentally, and from a food security perspective.
If the UK wants a future with high-welfare, domestically produced pork on supermarket shelves, action is needed now.
Without immediate support, there may soon be far fewer producers left to deliver it.