Brexit Modelling Justifies NFUS Priorities

AHDB Report shows clear need for focus on support, access to markets and labour requirements

NFU Scotland believes the modelling report ‘Brexit scenarios: An impact assessment’ launched by levy body Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) justifies the lobbying priorities the Union has been pursuing.

The AHDB analysis looks at the potential implications for individual UK agricultural sectors of leaving the EU. It covers beef, sheep, pigs, dairy, cereals, potatoes and horticulture, and analyses how farm incomes will be impacted by changes to the labour force, agricultural policy, regulation and the potential shape of future trade. It also illustrates the potentially severe impact on the bottom line for some farming sectors.

NFU Scotland’s Director of Policy, Jonnie Hall said: “While the AHDB report sets out more extreme scenarios, this detailed analysis unequivocally justifies NFU Scotland's Brexit priorities.

“With our food and drink sector valued at more than £14 billion, it is a bigger driver of Scotland's economy than oil and gas.  But with big ambitions to grow the industry to £30 billion by 2030, that means striking a bespoke Brexit deal that recognises the unique nature of our industry and gives confidence to Scotland’s farmers and crofters that production will be profitable in the future.

“For that to happen, Scottish and UK agricultural and food products must have frictionless access to existing and new export markets, and that the domestic market must not be exposed to cheaper imports that lack Scotland's exemplary animal welfare and environmental standards.

“The report also underlines the Union’s calls for continuous access to a skilled and competent work force, within both the farming and food processing sectors.  

“And it is beyond doubt that this AHDB work demonstrates the vital role that continued, targeted farm support will have, not least through an unknown transition period. The evidence presented underscores NFU Scotland’s calls for continued support refocused on action-based measures to bring about improved productivity across sectors while delivering environmental benefits and safeguarding and enhancing production standards.

“That would create the bed rock of a thriving farming, food and drinks sector for the post Brexit era.”

Notes for Editors

  • The full series of AHDB Horizon Brexit analysis reports can be found on its website here.  The latest Horizon report from AHDB - - quantifies the potential Brexit impact on farming sectors for the first time.
  • NFU Scotland’s Brexit discussion documents can be found at the following links: 
  • NFU Scotland’s Brexit roadshow events in November are listed below. Apart from one event in Argyll and Islands, these will start 7.30pm and will be hosted at the following:
    • 1 November – East Central at Huntingtower Hotel
    • 2 November – Forth and Clyde at Garfield Hotel, Stepps 
    • 6 November – Highlands at Broadford Hotel, Skye 
    • 7 November – Highlands at Dingwall Mart 
    • 8 November – North East at Thainstone, Inverurie
    • 13 November – Orkney at Ayre Hotel, Kirkwall 
    • 14 November – Shetland at Shetland Hotel, Lerwick 
    • 21 November – Ayrshire at Western Hotel, Ayr
    • 22 November – Dumfries and Galloway at a venue to be confirmed 
    • 23 November – Lothians and Borders at Carfraemill, Lauder 
    • 24 November – Argyll and Islands (12.30pm at Tarbert Bowling Club and 7.30pm at Cuan Mor, Oban).

For further details on individual meetings contact Regional Manager or call 0131 472 4000.  If media would like to attend any of the above events please contact for further details


Contact Bob Carruth on 0131 472 4006

Author: Bob Carruth

Date Published:

News Article No.: 152/17

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