NFU Scotland warns that recent falls in cattle prices risk halting – and potentially reversing – the fragile recovery in Scotland’s suckler beef sector.
After a period of strong returns that restored confidence across the industry, prices for store and finished cattle have eased back. While still historically strong, NFUS says the sudden shift exposes the sector’s ongoing vulnerability to volatility.
Store producers have benefited from strong demand, but finishers are being increasingly squeezed as deadweight prices soften and purchase costs cannot be recovered. NFUS says this “stop-start” market is damaging confidence and discouraging long-term investment.
NFU Scotland President Andrew Connon said:
“After a period where cattle prices finally gave producers confidence to invest again, we are now seeing that progress put at risk by volatility in the market. The beef sector needs stability, not sudden swings that undermine confidence just as we start to rebuild.”
He added:
“We were finally starting to feel there was a future in suckler beef again. But the margins are tight, and when prices drop like this, it quickly turns from confidence to concern about how to plan for the future.”
Scotland’s suckler herd remains in decline, and NFUS warns that any loss of confidence at this point risks accelerating contraction just as UK and domestic supplies remain tight. Global demand for beef remains strong, with Scotland well placed to supply markets. But NFUS says that opportunity will be lost if price instability continues to drive herd reduction.
The Union also points to increasing pressure from imports into the UK market, alongside fluctuating export demands, as factors continue to affect price stability and producer confidence.
NFUS is continuing engagement with retailers on imported product and will carry out further ShelfWatch audits over the summer to monitor sourcing and transparency across supermarket shelves. Alongside this, the NFUS Livestock Committee meeting next week will include a visit to a processing site as well as engagement with Quality Meat Scotland.
NFUS are also engaging with the UK Government on the development of the UK-EU SPS agreement allowing a closer trading relationship, which will reduce the cost of trade with the EU, and should see exports increase in the longer term.
However, the Union stresses that long-term confidence depends on stability, fair returns and sustained policy support. NFUS continues to call for multi-annual funding certainty and recognises the importance of coupled support mechanisms such as Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme (SSBSS) in underpinning business resilience.
NFUS has also raised ongoing concerns around input costs, including fuel and fertiliser, following discussions with Defra on wider geopolitical pressures affecting agriculture.
NFUS concludes that while the longer-term outlook for Scottish beef remains strong, the sector risks stalling just as opportunity returns unless price stability, fair returns and confidence are restored.
Without that, recovery will not just slow - it will reverse.
Notes to editors:
- Read the latest blog with more detail on this topic here.
- An image on Andrew Connon is attached.
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Contact Megan Williams on 07920 018619