Warns Middle East Conflict Risks Driving Up Farm Costs and Food Prices

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NFU Scotland Warns Middle East Conflict Risks Driving Up Farm Costs and Food Prices

NFU Scotland has written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer MP warning that escalating tensions in the Middle East are already pushing up the cost of key farm inputs and could threaten UK food security.

In the letter, NFU Scotland President Andrew Connon highlights growing concern among farmers and crofters across Scotland about rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to instability in global energy markets.



The Union says agriculture is particularly exposed to fluctuations in energy and fertiliser markets, with nitrogen fertiliser production heavily dependent on natural gas and farm operations reliant on diesel to power machinery and transport.

NFU Scotland has warned that the current surge in input costs could force farmers to reduce production – with knock-on impacts for domestic food supply.

NFU Scotland President Andrew Connon said:

“Farmers across Scotland are already seeing the early impact of global instability feed directly into the cost of producing food. Fertiliser and fuel are fundamental inputs for agriculture, and when those costs rise sharply it puts huge pressure on farm businesses.

“For many producers, input costs already represent the largest share of their operating expenses. If this volatility continues, some businesses may be forced to cut back production simply to survive financially.”

NFU Scotland has warned that any reduction in domestic production could increase reliance on imported food at a time when global supply chains are themselves under strain.

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Scotland’s rural economy and a vital contributor to national food security. The sector also underpins the wider Scottish food and drink industry, worth around £19 billion and supporting around 130,000 jobs. 

The Union is urging the UK Government to introduce a number of short-term measures to stabilise farm production and maintain food supply, including support for agricultural fuel costs and action to ensure fertiliser supply chains remain secure.

NFU Scotland is also calling for:

  • Temporary support for agricultural fuel costs, including exploring targeted relief mechanisms for red diesel used in farming
  • Measures to support fertiliser availability and affordability
  • A review of the proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in relation to fertiliser costs
  • Short-term financial resilience support to help farm businesses manage input cost volatility
  • Expanded powers and communication channels for the Agricultural Supply Chain Adjudicator
  • Greater monitoring and transparency of agricultural input markets

Mr Connon added:

“Scottish farmers and crofters are committed to continuing their essential role producing high-quality food for the nation. But without timely action, the compounding effect of rising input costs risk undermining production capacity precisely when global uncertainty makes domestic food security more important than ever.”

NFU Scotland has requested an urgent meeting with the UK Government, devolved governments and industry stakeholders to discuss the situation and agree practical measures to support agricultural production during the current period of global instability.


Notes to Editors

  • A photograph of Andrew Connon is attached
  • A link to the letter to the Prime Minister is available here.

 Ends

Contact Carly Ross on 07860 642826

Author: Carly Ross

Date Published:

News Article No.: 14/26


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